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Flames Game Day: Measuring Stick?

 


Pengrowth Saddledome

8 PM MT


TV: CBC



An extended stay in Calgary is nearing its end for the Flames, with the last in a five game home stand on the docket for this evening. The score on Wednesday certainly felt less than reflective of the game play, but that happens, and the opposition tonight likely knows that sensation quite well, based on recent and historical events.

Star-divide

So, after two and a half weeks in Calgary, what's been accomplished? If you cast your thoughts back to the middle of the month, it was clear that the Flames' two primary areas of improvement needed to be 1) reducing shots against at EV and 2) better penalty killing. How's the home stand looked in that regard?

 

The EV shots against, from the Thanksgiving night fiasco in Chicago til now read as follows:

at Chicago - 31

at Columbus - 27

Vancouver - 21

Columbus -16

Edmonton - 17

Colorado - 14

 

That's better, and more along the lines of what the Flames likely need to be a competitive team amongst the better teams in the conference. Kipper's not perfect by any means, but he's not often likely to give up 3 goals on 14 EV shots, as he did against the Avs. The trend is headed in the right direction.

 

The PK is still an area of concern, although the Flames did go 2 for 2 on Wednesday. Until then, they had given up 6 goals in their previous 20 PK situations on the home stand, so that's still an area of concern. There's that old saw about how your best penalty killer is your goalie, but I'm not sure goaltending has had that much to do with the team's ineptitude when down a man at home.

 

The first three lines appear to be status quo, with Iginla working with Conroy and Glencross. They had nice numbers in terms of Corsi and chances against some of Colorado's lesser lights and kids. I'm not sure they'll see opposition that poor at driving possession tonight, so a follow-up at that level would be good to see. It should be noted that Dawes-Langkow-Bourque got the tough match-ups Wednesday. That's becoming a trend, and until Iginla and/or Jokinen show better play on a consistent basis, that's probably as it should be.

 

Olli Jokinen was reputed to have played well. I didn't see great play, but I did notice that when he got good scoring chances, it came when he was following the action, including a good shot when he came down the right wing as a trailer. His goal was the least likely shot he took, in fact. Kent half-jokingly suggested he should be a winger earlier this year, but that's not the worst idea if Dustin Boyd keeps playing well. Giving him the puck in situations where his primary role is as a shooter is still likely the best hope for productivity. I don't see moving him to the wing being in the cards at this point, but Jokinen's over-all play at center is a serious concern for a team that has hopes of being more than first-round fodder.

 

Dustin Boyd returns from quarantine this evening, headed back to center Prust and Nystrom. He's been very good in his role this season, and his emergence may, as I touched on above, allow the team some flexibility down the road. For now, he's part of a line that's better than most fourth groups around the league. 

 

The sixth spot is the only area of flux on the blue, with Staffan Kronwall getting a look tonight against his older brother's side. Adam Pardy struggled a bit on Wednesday, so Sutter is still in mix-and-match mode. Kronwall will go with Giordano, leaving the top two pairs intact. 

 

Miikka Kiprusoff will get the start. 3 for 14 is not normally what you'd hope for, but there were enough mitigating circumstances to not get too upset over events, and frankly, Colorado's shooting luck just waited one game too many to run out. I'd guess we'll see McE in either Dallas or St. Louis, but not tonight against the Wings.

 

The gold standard has had a difficult off-season and early season to contend with. Cap issues lead to the departures of Hossa and Kopecky, Jiri Hudler went to the KHL, and injuries have claimed Franzen and Filppula.  Boo-friggin'-hoo. They're still dangerous as hell, with an overwhelming third period in Vancouver leading to a 5-4 win on Tuesday, and an equally strong late game effort permitted them to come back from 5-1 down before losing in the skills competition to the Oilers Thursday. 

 

Everyone's buddy Sparklepants makes his return to the Dome, and he'll skate with Datsyuk. Joking aside, Todd Bertuzzi has never said anything bad about the team or the organization, and I never got the sense that he was anything but a model teammate off-ice. As easy as it is to blame him for his lackluster play, Mike Keenan still is largely responsible for enabling Bertuzzi and others to freelance. That said, I'm still glad he's in Detroit. I don't see Bert as a major contributor to a good team anymore, and the fact that the Red Wings need him to be one for the next month or two is likely good for the other teams in the conference.

 

I watched the second part of the game Thursday night, and as good as they looked on the attack as the night progressed, the Wings seem vulnerable to fore check pressure in a way I haven't seen in recent years. Their main defencemen are still good, but aging, and the team's best young D, Jonny Ericsson, has been so-so against the lesser lights.  His pairing with Lebda should be the primary target. 

 

The Wings' goaltending has been lousy, and as Ray Ferraro noted on TSN during the broadcast Thursday, the thinning of Detroit's forward depth doesn't allow them the same margin for error past squads enjoyed. They're still an out-shooting team, however, and any team with Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom will be a threat. Calgary's recent good work at keeping EV shots down will get a pretty thorough exam this evening. The other area to watch will be to see which good PP takes advantage of which crappy PK.

 

Lineups, per the Herald:

Calgary:

Dawes Langkow Bourque

Glencross Conroy Iginla

Sjostrom Jokinen Moss

Prust Boyd Nystrom

 

Regehr Phaneuf

Sarich Bouwmeester

Giordano Kronwall

 

Detroit:

Bertuzzi Datsyuk Holmstrom

Cleary Zetterberg Williams

Draper Helm Eaves

Leino Abdelkader Maltby


Lidstrom Rafalski

Kronwall Stuart

Ericsson Lebda

 

Game time is 8 PM MT, with the dulcet tones of Mark Lee and Kevin Weekes on the call. I would never refer to any game against Detroit as a likely win, but the current iteration of the Wings is probably as weakened as they're going to get this year. It would be very good to get one tonight.

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Sparklepants is having some bad luck with bounces thus far, but…really, he is who we thought he was:

Zonestart: 63.5% offensive draws (!)
corsi: +6.44/60 or -6.2/60 relative…good for 3rd worst amongst regular skaters in Detroit.

Leino is probably a far better option for the 1st line, but there’s Bertuzzi clogging things up.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 31, 2009 12:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Leino is out. Apparently Babcock is unhappy with his effort. Also, Ericsson is a game time decision due to some unnamed ailment.

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Bertuzzi is frustrating. When he’s on the ice, the Wing’s forecheck kind of dies.

That said, he’s been better than I was expecting in terms of creating scoring opportunities, and the bounces have gone against him, as you say; If I recall correctly, he’s shot off a post five times already. If he keeps playing at his present level, I think he might end up on the good side of 2.00 pts/60 at even strength, and he should be valuable to the Wing’s powerplay. In terms of value, he’s looking a little to me like Hudler with worse d-zone coverage.
.
As a Wings fan, I’ve never watched Bertuzzi as closely as I’ve been able to this season, ad it’s been interesting. I’ve always heard about how lazy he is defensively, but that hasn’t been at all the case so far. His effort in that regard has been nothing but earnest. He has, however, been rather stupid in his own zone, and his positioning is often very poor. The main thing I’m noticing is that he tends to gravitate toward the puck; he’ll abandon the point to defend in the slot when he has no cause to do so, he’ll slide 6-8 feet away from his man toward the puck-carrier on a 3-on-3 rush, etc.

Since you folks have seen him play a lot more than I have, could you tell me if that’s basically what to expect; a player whose effort is their, but whose performance is lacking? Should I look for him to just stop trying sometime soon?

by BrianW on Oct 31, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

He was disinterested in his own zone last year, Brian, but as I noted in the OP, I always wonder if he`d have played the same way if a coach was hard on him. I`d guess Babcock won`t tolerate the freelancing that we saw here, so it`s possible that he puts forth a better effort this year.

I think the positioning thing is a good item to watch. He`s always been a bit lost in his own end and that comment about point coverage is pretty astute. He`s always struggled with defensive coverage, even when he was piling up big numbers as a Canuck.

I think if I were watching for a tell, it would be when he starts making blind backhand passes on offence and soft plays at both blue lines. Unless the Wings have a miracle cure, It`ll come as surely as the swallows to Capistrano. The best hope is that Babcock controls his ice time and limits his exposure over the long term to tough comp.

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bertuzzi’s main problem isn’t necessarily effort to me. Sometimes he’s disinterested, sometimes he isn’t. As you say though he’s stupid. His decision making is poor, which is why the puck ends up in the wrong end of the ice when he’s skating. He’s getting absolutely primo minutes again with the Red Wings, so his counting stats are bound to improve, but I’m guessing that’ll be more a reflection of great zone starts and playing with good players than anything else…just as it was here in Calgary.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 31, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

“Earnest and stupid” is probably as good a description of Bert as any…

by maimster on Oct 31, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Funny though, Robert is right that it’s hard to have real antipathy to Bert now that he’s in another uniform. I’m glad he’s clogging up Detroit’s top 6 but I don’t actively cheer against him while watching Detroit – as opposed to watching any Canuck or Oiler. I guess I was more upset about quality of his play than the quality of his character while in Calgary (which, come to think of it, probably doesn’t speak highly of me as a person but captures fandom perfectly!).

by maimster on Oct 31, 2009 12:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Also, I have a new nickname for Jokinen: Sex Panther.

Expensive, over-hyped…but just plain stinks.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 31, 2009 12:40 PM PDT reply actions  

I heart this nickname.

“You know it’s good because it’s made from real panther”

by Subversive on Oct 31, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

So… Eklund’s saying Ray Whitney could be on his way to Calgary. I know it’s Eklund, but hmmmm.

by RossCreek on Oct 31, 2009 1:28 PM PDT reply actions  

Olli Jokinen for Ray Whitney

??

by RossCreek on Oct 31, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Money doesn`t match, and the Canes are as tight to the cap as Calgary. His salary is almost exactly the same as Sarich`s, but honestly, it’s Eklund. I’m mean, he’d probably rate my likelihood of golfing in Winnipeg on New Year’s Day as at least an E3.

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’d like to get Whitney, actually, but this is pure fantasy.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 31, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

With a nice effort from Iginla this game is tilted in our favor I think. The way the Detroit roster is currently constructed Iginla will be facing a tough matchup on the night no matter what (Zetterberg or Datsyuk, pick your poison) but the nice thing is our depth at all positions is likely better.

I predict a close win on the back of the lines that don’t face Lidstrom.

by R O on Oct 31, 2009 2:44 PM PDT reply actions  

z

Sportsnet is saying that Sutter wants Jokinen to shoot between 6-8 times a game.

Prorated to 82 games that is 492 to 656 shots: the former is Ovechkin territory, the latter is league-record breaking.

Suffice it to say that this is not a reasonable expectation. I would be happy with 3-4.

by R O on Oct 31, 2009 3:23 PM PDT reply actions  

They don’t all hit the net, R O. 6 attempts might only mean 4 SOG, right?

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s fair. I thought he meant 6-8 SOG which in retrospect wasn’t what he said at all.

by R O on Oct 31, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I re-watched the Montreal game today. And, aside from being deaf and dumb in the defensive zone, one of the problems with the Jokinen/Iginla unit was just that – Olli wasn’t shooting when he got good looks at the net at ES.

If he starts getting more pucks at the goalie, it won’t fix everything but it might move him closer to being a soft comp eater at least.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 31, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good lord, the Habs have the prison unis on again. You know how pro leagues print up two sets of merch for championship games/series? The losing team’s set usually gets donated somewhere in the third world, so some poor African kid likely has an “Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl Champions” shirt. That’s too good a fate for the Habs’ third jerseys.

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 4:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Semi related: I own a “Istanbul 2008 Olympics” t-shirt. I was there in 2001 and bought it, knowing what a collectors item it would be some day since there was NO WAY IN HELL they were getting those Olympics.

by Subversive on Oct 31, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yup. My mom bought my brother and I “Toronto Blue Jays – 1985 American League Champions” sweatshirts that ended up being sold in some stores in Toronto when they went up 3-1 against Kansas City. Oops.

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

i think the natural leather coloured gloves make them far better on the eyes….

by walkinvisible on Oct 31, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, wi, did that radio person from Montreal in your comments get a hold of you?

by Robert Cleave on Oct 31, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

not yet. i just responded about a half hour ago….. all i want is a freakin’ sjöström jersey. i DO think it’s interesting that pretty much everyone has an opinion on the sitch, except for anyone remotely related to the flames. ;)

by walkinvisible on Oct 31, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

ps: i’m still totally flabbergasted at the abuse i took over at puckdaddy for wanting a jersey that fits me…..150 comments over there on the subject. the subject of SIZE. :)

by walkinvisible on Oct 31, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

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