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Around SBN: 'You Just Have to Put Him to Sleep'

Flames Scoring Chances - Game 1

I'm slowly working my way through the first 5 games. Today I'll publish my findings for the first contest against Vancouver, with a view to getting everything the first 5 contests done by the end of the week.

Scoring Chances were scored via these criteria:

- Shots from a given area on the ice in the offensive zone. Think of a wedge or pie shape, starting from the net and emanating to around the top of the face-off circles. That should exclude most shoot-ins and prayers from the boards and corners. 

- Also, a shot has to be attempted in order to be counted I think. If your club gets a two-on-one and the pass is bobbled, then it doesn't count.

- Goals are also counted as scoring chances automatically, even if it was a stinker.

Star-divide

Without further ado, the totals for game 1. I've included the time, who was on the ice and the game state (ES or PP).

Scgame1_medium

I was fairly surprised to find the Flames with the bigger score at the end of the game. You can see where the Canucks began to take over the game in the second half of period 2, but I found a lot of their shots in the 3rd were restricted to the point and periphery. The Flames, on the other hand, only saw the offensive zone a couple of times, but each foray resulted in a decent opportunity. Keep in mind, Calgary's total is also "inflated" due to the fact that Giordano and Pardy's shots found twine - otherwise, I may not have counted those as scoring chances. In addition, my definition excludes "softer" chances - say, shots that are from relatively close in, but would still make you groan if they slipped through the goalie. This includes poor angle shots from the circles for example. Vancouver likely would have led at the end of the night if those had been included.

In addition, here are individual Flames player totals (ES only):

Scplayers1_medium

As you can see, Iginla and Jokinen created next to nothing and bled chances against. Phaneuf and Regehr mostly played behind them against the Sedin twins, so they paid the price. No surprises there. The Langkow/Bourque/Dawes unit managed the most scoring chances over the evening, while the 4th line saw the fewest chances against.

I plan to track Flames scoring chances +/- as this project moves along. I'll likely post it as a google doc once we get more established so folks can refer to current rates whenever the mood strikes them.

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This looks really good Kent, I’m looking forward to more updates.

by ArikJames on Oct 11, 2009 2:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Hey Kent, I think Vic has a script that makes recording scoring chances a lot easier – are you using said script?

I’m happily surprised that we outdid Vancouver that game at ES.

by R O on Oct 11, 2009 9:27 PM PDT reply actions  

It was pretty close by the end. Of course generating shots in generall – even if they aren’t grade ‘a’ scoring chances, has value in itself because sometimes they go in anywas (see: Adam Pardy’s goal), so although the Canucks only garnered a few top quality opportunities in their 20 odd shots in the 30, they probably had a lot more than that otherwise.

All that said, the Flames absolutely shut the Canucks down for a period and a half. Seriously, they barely had a sniff.

I don’t know about any vic script though. Where do you find it?

by Kent Wilson on Oct 11, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Dennis mentioned it in a post at MC79. Scott from GospelOfHockey is using it too, the tables they’re generating are exactly the same. It’s probably best to email Vic.

That period and a half was the best hockey they played this year.
And Vancouver reverted to form tonight: -8 aggregate total Corsi (first line with major issues without Daniel Sedin) and by eye, outpressured by Dallas.

by R O on Oct 11, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Vic Ferrari, that is.

by R O on Oct 11, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am a nerd...

Hi everyone,

I am a huge nerd, so I joined this blog just to ask a fantasy question….and to follow what’s up with my favorite Canadien-based hockey team.

I was thinking about picking up Rene Bourque and dropping Alex Tanguay. I was hoping that with Tanguay being in a contract year AND playing with Lecavalier, that he would be a point-per-game guy. That is not the case. Bourque had a good year last year until he was injured, and he is always good for PIMs. Using your Calgary perspective, is this a good move?

by Link_Gaetz on Oct 12, 2009 7:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Let’s face it Link…we’re pretty much all nerds here.

Anyways, depending on what your league values, moving Tanguay for Bourque might be a good move, although I would council waiting for a bit before dumping Alex outright. He’s a player with a higher ceiling points wise and he’s likely playing with better players and will probably get more PP time. Bourque’s had a good opening week, but that’s not necessarily going to continue forever.

In addition, I see that Tanguay is a team leader in terms of corsi right now – meaning he’s spent a lot more time in the offensive zone. If that continues, the points will come.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 12, 2009 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, also Bourque is always streaky to begin with. I guess I am holding out hope that Bourque will replace Moss on the first line….if Moss is still even on the first line (tough to follow all the details of Western teams when you live on the East Coast)

by Link_Gaetz on Oct 12, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Moss is currently hurt, so we’re not sure who will land there. However, the first line is a pox right now. Anyone landing with Iginla and Jokinen will find their scoring depressed, not elevated. The reason Bourque’s numbers are good is because he isn’t playing on the first line.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 12, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

apparently sjöström has been banished to the quarantine line (aka: playing with iggy and jokinen). i actually think this makes a lot of sense, under the circumstances. freddie is fast and good on the forecheck, but also very responsible defensively. while there’s little hope of him actually getting a puck in the net, his foward mobility on the wing might actually stop olli from trying to cross the blueline at centre, and might actually set up his linemates with some good opportunities deep in the O’zone…. either that or the poor kid will end up getting saddled with a minus like the rest of olli and iggy’s linemates have this season…

by walkinvisible on Oct 12, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

I doubt that lasts. Sjostrom is a capable depth player, but I’m guessing he gets eaten alive against the tougher competition. Especially given his new line mates.

This also means McGrattan is in the line-up. Yuck.

by Kent Wilson on Oct 12, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

i got it:
mcgrattan on the TOP line, so the bunch only has to play 6 or 7 minutes.
ha. how many goals do you think the hawks could score in 6 minutes ?

by walkinvisible on Oct 12, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

4, if McGratton is on the ice.

by LawrenceS on Oct 12, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

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